Ever wondered how electric vehicles will affect the future of oil demand?
We have done a study regarding the same.
Early forecast have suggested that with the advent of electric vehicles will have a dramatic impact on the demand for oil.
Though electric vehicle market is small for the time being but it has created a very big question about the future of oil demand.
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Impact of Electric Vehicle on the Demand for Oil
A forecast was issued by Morgan Stanley regarding the global miles, saying that it will increase from 11 trillion to 32 trillion by 2030. The emerging markets will be a key for growth.
The forecast also says that there will be aggressive growth for electric cars and light trucks along with gains by gas fuelled vehicles.
It is expected that China will be the quickest and largest country to adapt to electric vehicles and increase miles travelled from 1.5 trillion to nearly 9 trillion by 2040.
It is forecasted that there will be a growth in the number of electric cars over the next two decades from 1.2 million to around seventy million in 2035.
Meanwhile the total number of cars around the world will double which means adding another 900 million cars to the existing 900 million cars.
This shows that there will be a significant increase in the number of electric cars compared to the growth of cars that run with gasoline.
Autonomous vehicles are supposed to be available by early 2020s. A majority of these vehicles will be bought by fleets offering shared mobility services because of their high initial costs.
Chief economist Spencer Dale proposes that an average electric car will be driven about two and a half times more than cars that have an internal combustion.
“What we expect to see in the 2030s is a huge growth in shared mobility autonomous cars.
Once you don’t have to pay for a driver, the cost of taking one of those share mobility fleets services will fall by about 40 or 50 percent,” Dale said.
A large portion of shared mobility is supposed to be electric vehicles since they have lower maintenance costs.
Several car makers including General Motors, Tesla, BMW, Jaguar and high tech giants such as Waymo and Uber has poured billions into the autonomous vehicle industry hoping to be the first to make a move.
One of the main uses for most self-driving vehicles is to be as robo-taxi services.
Do More Electric Vehicles Mean Lower Carbon Dioxide Emissions?
This question can’t be given a straightforward answer. Electric vehicles are supposed to dampen the demand for oil and thus curb carbon emissions.
But as compared to passenger vehicles, electric vehicles will account for a minority. This might outweigh the potential gains that are associated with vehicles that are powered by oil.
There are some parts of the world where fuel is used to generate electricity to charge the electric cars.
Usage of coal for producing power will create as much carbon emission as a gas powered car emits.
Anyway if the number of electric cars surpasses the number of vehicles that are powered by gasoline there will be a significant reduction in the carbon footprints created by the vehicles.
Tying it up Together
Electric vehicles will pave a foundation to a lower carbon future. It would be wise to opt for electric cars in the future and pay more attention to improve car efficiency.
This means less gas and less coal in power generation. These factors might help generate carbon savings over the next few decades. Choices have to be made in a real world with finite resources.